The great guessing game...

Ok so most of you know that we have been in the process of adopting from China since January 2006.  Our dossier officially arrived in China on Sept 12, 2006 (this is our Logged In Date, LID).  We have waited a very long 6 years to receive our referral.  China has slowly churned through dossiers and referrals and we have waited.  However, after long last, we might very well be getting our referral SOON.  China has processed dossiers through August 20, 2006 and there are very few dossiers between August 21st and August 28th due to a CCAA (Central Chinese Adoption Agency) holiday.  China is processing approximately 4-6 days worth of dossiers each month but it's hard to tell what will happen with a week of no dossiers.  It also looks like there are a few days with spikes in dossiers (Aug 28th, Sept 5th, Sept 11th and of course Sept 12th), so it's hard to tell exactly how the next 22 days of dossiers are going to break out.

That being said, I thought it would be good to start guessing on when we'll actually receive our referral.  Referrals traditionally arrive towards the end of the month
LID 08/02/2006 - Referral 10/24/2011
LID 08/07/2006 - Referral 11/28/2011
LID 08/10/2006 - Referral 12/19/2011
LID 08/15/2006 - Referral 01/19/2012
LID 08/21/2006 - Referral 02/22/2012

So my thought is along the following:
LID 08/31/2006 - Referral 03/26/2012
LID 09/05/2006 - Referral 04/23/2012
LID 09/11/2006 - Referral 05/29/2012
LID 09/12+/2006 - Referral 06/25/2012

NOW- that being said, most of the rumor boards put us in the July group (closer to Jul 23/24th) and because  Sept 5th, 11th and 12th seem to be spikes they could all very well each be a separate month which would push us all the way back to August. (Let's hope that's not the case!)

Anybody want to take a guess -